Updated COVID-19 model predicts when your state could reopen

This story was updated on April 28, 2020, at 8pm. 

When will your state reopen from its COVID-19 shutdown?

Some states could reopen safely on May 4. Others might wait until late June.

Projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), updated on April 27, indicate that it may be safe to start the reopening process as early as May 11-13 for some states, but as late as July for others.

That’s far too long to wait for some Southern states. On Monday, April 20, the governor of South Carolina issued an executive order allowing retail shops across the state to open that afternoon. In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp announced the reopening of gyms, salons, and tattoo parlors on Friday, with restaurants and movie theaters to open the following Monday, April 27.

According to the IHME projections, though, those two states are among the least prepared to reopen. There’s no indication that either state has the testing capability or contact tracing infrastructure to sustain a “containment” phase of the pandemic. The IHME projections, revised on April 27, suggest that South Carolina wait until June 14, while advising Georgia to wait until June 28.

Meanwhile, Louisiana announced on April 27 that the state’s stay-at-home order would be extended to May 15. It had been expected to expire on April 30. Utah announced an easing of restrictions beginning on Friday, May 1, and South Dakota issued a “Back to Normal” plan—even though its governor had never actually issued a stay-at-home order.

Curve is flattening, not falling quickly

The IHME model increased total expected US mortality in the COVID-19 pandemic’s first wave to 74,073 on April 27—an increase of nearly 7,000 from the previous week’s estimate. According to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, 56,259 COVID-19 deaths have already been recorded in the United States—more Americans than were killed in the Vietnam War.

“At least part of this increase is due to many states experiencing flatter and thus longer epidemic peaks,” Institute officials wrote. “Further, updated data indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths are not falling very quickly after the peak, leading to longer tails for many states’ epidemic curves. In combination—less abrupt peaks and slower declines in daily COVID-19 deaths following the peak—many places in the US could have higher cumulative deaths from the novel coronavirus.”

An influential forecast

The latest projections are an outgrowth of IHME’s continued work to forecast the scope of the coronavirus epidemic in every state and in several other countries. They come as the group’s work, which has been influential from the White House to statehouses, is attracting criticism from some disease experts.

It’s helpful to keep in mind that the IHME projections are just that—projections. They’re based on the best available data at a certain point in time. The model evolves as scientists learn more each day about the virus, its infection and mortality rates, and how the actions of institutions and individuals affect outcomes.

The projections themselves may influence leaders to make policy decisions, and individuals to make choices, that alter the actual outcome.

“All models are just models,” Dr. Anthony Fauci has said. “When you get new data, you change them.”

Data shifts and changes

“We are now entering the phase of the epidemic when government officials are considering when certain types of distancing policies may be eased,” IHME officials said in a news release on Friday, April 17. “With today’s release, we provide initial estimates that can serve as an input to such considerations in the US.”

In a media briefing, IHME director Dr. Chris Murray cautioned that the potential “opening dates” represent a first take and are likely to change as more information comes in from individual states. Among the key variables are whether deaths are likely to drop sharply once they peak, or whether—as seems to be occurring in New York—they will plateau and decrease slowly.

Another main factor will be how soon states can quickly diagnose and isolate newly infected people and everyone they have come in contact with. States that bolster their health departments and expand testing capacity might be able to start opening up sooner, Murray said.

‘Opening’ isn’t a return to normalcy

The dates represent the modelers’ best estimate of when the daily new infection rate in each state will drop below one per 1 million people.

The reopening estimates assume that when social distancing policies will be eased, they happen in conjunction with public health containment strategies—including widespread testing, contact tracing, and isolation of new cases. They also assume that mass gatherings like concerts and professional sports will not be allowed through at least early summer.

Safe reopening dates, by state, as of April 27

The Associated Press contributed to this report.